The occupation of Mogadishu by the Ethiopian Army represents an opportunity for reconciliation and reconstruction, but time is short because factors that could cause disintegration are predominant. The simple deployment of a security force and an incantation of the virtues of democracy and good governance cannot compensate for a secular division into fiefdoms, financed by trafficking. On the other hand, the cooperation of the clans can and should be negotiated on the basis of financial advantage and power-sharing, in order to avoid a return to humanitarian crisis within the year, and militant Islam thereafter.
Somalia: what Strategy should be the International Community Adopt?
In spring 2006, the taking of Mogadishu by the forces of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) marked a new stage in a crisis in which the international community has appeared powerless since the failure of the United Nations operation between 1992 and 1995. This was temporarily resolved with the occupation of Mogadishu by the Ethiopians and the apparent elimination of the ICU.
The fall of an avowedly Islamist regime for the first time since the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001 is good news for Washington and is liable to strengthen the American administration in its conviction that the use of force against these extremists is possible, provided its ally is well chosen. It is also likely to confirm Western chancelleries in the view that no medicine can work on this disease, not even sharia law.
Nevertheless, this setback represents a unique opportunity for national reconciliation and reconstruction, as long as the required resources are applied (but not necessarily more than those needed to finance the warlords or a deployment of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)), and the time is taken to re-establish inter-clan dialogue. However, this approach demands quick action since the latest developments indicate a rapid return to old habits.
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