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  • Revue n° 698 June 2007
  • The Defence Option

The Defence Option

Henry A. Obering III, "The Defence Option " Revue n° 698 June 2007

Ballistic missiles carrying even a single nuclear, chemical, or biological payload can potentially cause catastrophic damage to a country. The US ballistic missile defence system is a limited response to the growing threats posed by ballistic missiles of all ranges, yet today it can defend only the United States against long-range attack. It is not capable of providing Europe a similar defence against intermediate- and long-range ballistic missiles attacks from the Middle East. The United States can offer its European allies protection from long-range ballistic missile attack by forward deploying elements of the US system in Central Europe. These missile defence assets would complement future NATO missile defence systems and those deployed by allies. All together this deployment would provide the complementary coverage required for a stronger missile defence. Without the option of defence, victims of attack are left with only pre-emption, retaliation or capitulation as a response.

Any military leader or defence analyst will tell you that a government has essentially four options for stopping an attack. It can either capitulate (and give in to the demands of the aggressor and possibly suffer losses in the meantime), strike pre-emptively (and remove the source of the threat), retaliate once deterrence has failed (and accept the casualties and damages caused by the aggression) or actively defend itself against the attack. Any one of these options, or combination of them, could work and have varying trade-offs and degrees of success.

Ironically, the weapon that could hurt populations in the United States and Europe the most is also the one weapon against which we are least protected. Ballistic missiles carrying even a single nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical payload can potentially cause catastrophic damage to a country, killing thousands, ruining national economies and producing significant societal dislocation. To be sure, we have made significant strides in building, at an unprecedented rate, new defences against this threat, yet we still have much work to do. Today, the primary options available to us, in most situations, remain capitulation, pre-emption, or retaliation. We need to strengthen that fourth option–defence.

Threat

Ballistic missiles offer a stand-off strike capability that is very different from that of any other weapon system. These weapons and their payloads fly through air and space at thousands of miles per hour, so that the time from launch to impact can be measured in minutes. They may be launched from unpredicted locations around the globe and use different trajectories, and new technologies arise every year that increase missile range and make payloads more lethal and difficult to counter. It is no wonder rogue countries seeking to challenge the United States or its allies militarily and diplomatically are striving to acquire these weapons. Weapons that give one country a capability to coerce, intimidate, deter or attack another, even a militarily or economically superior country, offer a way for our adversaries to maintain freedom of action on the international stage.

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