Nigeria is the foremost African oil producer, the twelfth in the world, and the fifth most important supplier of crude oil to the United States. The whole of this production comes from the Niger Delta, the majority from wells located inland in the States of Bayelsa, Rivers and Delta, and an increasing proportion from ever deeper offshore rigs. Virtually all Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings, 40 per cent of its national wealth and 80 per cent of the natural resources of the Federal government come from oil income.⁽¹⁾

From the beginning of this exploitation in 1958, there has been a gradual increase in unrest in the Delta. Independence in 1960 marked the start of serious troubles which were, however, overshadowed by the civil war (1967-70). The execution of the pacifist leader Ken Saron Wiwa by the Abacha regime in 1995 unleashed a real armed struggle. It was hoped that the democratic accession of President Obasanjo in 1999 would have a calming effect. Nevertheless, the crisis has intensified since 2004, and during 2006 the militants kidnapped more than 150 people, exploded five booby-trapped vehicles, killed in the order of 100 members of the security forces, and paralysed at least a quarter of the country’s oil production. This inland insecurity, now extending out to sea, is the result of a situation which could be classified as escalating crisis. The slide towards civil war is not inevitable, but is foreseeable in the future, and may even be happening.

One questions the impact that the results of the lively and contested elections of April 2007 could have, particularly the emergence as Federal Vice-President of an Ijaw⁽²⁾ from the Delta, the Governor of the State of Bayelsa, Goodluck Jonathan.