Pakistan is a troubled and disruptive country; it has frontier disputes with both India and Afghanistan and friction may also occur at sea with Iran. It also has to contend with serious internal problems; this talk will develop possible scenarios for the future of the Pakistani-Afghan conflicts and their regional and global impact.

The Strategic Importance of Pakistan and Afghanistan

Geographical Situation

Its surface area (800,000 km²), population (170 million inhabitants) and resources make Pakistan the second most important country in Southern Asia after India. With 95 per cent of its population Muslim, it is also the second largest Muslim nation in the world. It forms part of Southern Asia as it was created out of what was British India, but it has close links with Central Asia and the Middle East, primarily through the Islamic religion. Pakistan’s population are a mix of Punjabis and Sindhis and has links not only to the Indian subcontinent but also to Afghanistan through the Pashtuns (Pathans).

Sharing borders with Iran, Afghanistan, China and India, it lies along the banks of the Indus from the Himalayas to the Arabian Gulf. The most direct route for Indian products exported to Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia passes through Pakistan. Conversely, the natural gas and oil riches of the Middle East and Central Asia are available to to China’s Xingjian province and to India via Pakistan, with oil and gas pipelines currently at the project stage.