The rise in the oil price has become an important subject of political debate, and is one of the main concerns of our citizens. This continuous increase often seems irrational to us. At least a partial explanation for this inflation can be found in the political instability of the Middle East (notably, these past few months, tensions on the Turkey-Iraq border); uncertainty as to the outcome of the Iranian crisis; social unrest in Nigeria; and the nationalisations in Venezuela and Bolivia. In reality these answers are superficial. This oil crisis is also frequently ascribed to the rapid industrialisation of China and India. As so often in Europe, these countries are ideal scapegoats for us; but what is the reality?

The Reasons for Price Rises

For a start, the latent oil crisis that we are experiencing cannot be compared with its three predecessors (following the Yom Kippur War in 1973; coincidental with the Iranian Revolution in 1979; and finally at the time of the First Gulf War in 1990), either in its scope or its importance. Today it is not so much a crisis of offer as an excess of demand.

During the year 1974, the first oil crisis, world oil production had been reduced by 5 per cent. Today, by comparison, production has never been higher. There has been a rise of 10 per cent since the year 2000 in order to keep up with world consumption.⁽¹⁾ Even if the price of oil seems to have been exploding, in constant US dollars and in real terms it has only attained the level reached during the second oil crisis: in January 1981 the price of Brent crude was $38.85 per barrel, the equivalent of $102 today. Between March 2000 and March 2008 the price of a barrel of Saudi crude (Arab light) tripled,⁽²⁾ compared with the period October-December 1973 when the price rose be a factor of five! The relative proportion of fossil fuels in world energy consumption has also reduced, allowing the shock to be more easily absorbed.