Just after the appearance of the White Paper confirming the principle of French deterrence, at a time when we can detect signs of a second Cold War in the Caucasus, when Iran has regional pretensions and China is significantly improving the performance of its ballistic missile submarines, the above question might seem incongruous, if not unwelcome. Nevertheless, when France chose to equip itself with nuclear weapons, it did so while proclaiming their temporary nature, endorsing the aim of general disarmament.

Where are we today? The question should not be pushed aside on the pretext that there is consensus on the matter. The obvious fact of setbacks to non-proliferation must be considered, as must the consequences of the unilateral breaking of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty by the Americans and the inadequacy of deterrence in the face of terrorism and non-state threats. Also, we must measure the impact of the persistence of the great powers’ nuclear choices on threshold countries which have not yet acquired nuclear weapons. Could France, whose voice is still heard round the world, make the historic choice of renouncing them? Without lapsing into the wishful thinking denounced by Hubert Védrine in his book Continuer l’Histoire’,⁽¹⁾ the singularity of this choice could, if founded on multilateral negotiations, create the conditions for highly significant progress in the anti-proliferation campaign. It would also lay the foundations for a new balance in the UN Security Council and, by doing so, would support the project for relaunching the issue, which France has espoused. Finally, in these new conditions, the relevance of a European anti-missile shield must be studied.

A Well-Established Consensus

The White Paper evokes both the strategic uncertainty in relation to proliferation and the multiplication of ballistic vectors, as well as the possibility of a technological breakthrough, to justify the maintenance of French nuclear deterrence. Nonetheless, although the threats have changed, the concept of deterrence has hardly altered. Some subtleties concerning possible tactical or pre-strategic use in order to re-establish deterrence have appeared but these do not alter the essence of deterrence, which aims to bring unacceptable risks, in relation to the objectives sought, to bear on any potential aggressor.