Scientific consensus on the problems of global warming has taken a long time to emerge: on its extent; on its causes; and on its predicted consequences. It is just about achieved today. The article sets out the history of the negotiations that have led to the current situation, and then the setback (doubtless temporary, but none the less certain for all that) of the Copenhagen conference. It reminds us of what we know about global warming, and evokes its likely consequences: the desertification of entire regions in the centre of our continents and in the Mediterranean region, reductions in biological diversity, rising sea levels, melting polar icecaps, and growing tensions in the energy economy
The Geopolitics and Geostrategy of Climate Change
The date when Edison switched on his first electric lamp is well known, as is that when Louis Pasteur first tested a vaccine against rabies.
There are other scientific discoveries for which it would be inappropriate to assign individual responsibility and where substantiation arises much less from observable, irrefutable and repeatable experiments or manipulation than from a consensus view amongst the scientific community concerning the suggestions or hypotheses of a few colleagues that are difficult to verify in practice; unsurprisingly they are the subject of much debate.
This may be a prolonged process. How many centuries had to pass before it was generally accepted that the earth went round the sun and not the reverse, despite the fact that several Greeks came to this conclusion long before Copernicus and Galileo? Louis Pasteur recounted the initial hostility of the scientific community of his own era, but only a few years were needed for it to come round to his point of view.
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