The notion of a ‘war’ against terrorism is now devoid of meaning. Realising this, General David Petraeus, now at the head of US Central Command, faced with the realities on the ground in Iraq, rediscovered the lessons drawn by David Galula in his ‘Counter-Insurgency Warfare’ published in the 1960s. This meeting across time of two likeminded men of operational experience and impressive intellect reminds us that, beyond superficial change, there are enduring lessons from the past that it would be irresponsible to neglect.
The War Against Terrorism: ‘Take Away the Fire Under the Cauldron’
To paraphrase Sully, we can say that the two pillars of efficient action are a concept which is pertinent, and means which are adapted. This is particularly so in the domain of the war against terrorism.
Anti-terrorism Concepts
In the field of concepts a breath of fresh air has just been brought to us by the RAND Corporation, with the publication of a study entitled ‘How Terrorist Groups End: Implications for Countering al Qa’ida’.
The RAND Study
In substance, the researchers studied 648 terrorist groups which were active during the period 1968-2006. Their principal conclusion is that 10 per cent of them ceased their activity after having achieved their aims, while only 7 per cent were suppressed by military force. This leaves a hard core of 83 per cent, and this is where the main interest of the study lies. It demonstrates that half of this hard core (43 per cent) laid down their arms following a political solution, and the other half (40 per cent), who refused to move forward towards a political solution, were dismantled by action which combined offensive intelligence and infiltration. This was used by a security apparatus coordinating the public actors in the field of law enforcement: justice, police, customs and the civil service. Among other observations, the RAND study underlines the resilience of religious terrorist groups, which makes law enforcement much more difficult. This, then, is an interesting basis on which to clarify the choice of a concept of fighting terrorism.
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