A lot happened in the summer of 2008, especially at the geostrategic level, and this enhanced awareness of the increasingly multipolar nature of the world, no longer dominated by one or two superpowers. However, the various poles that have emerged are far from equal, and this is likely to lead to a dangerously unstable situation. At first sight the most logical response might be to re-create the blocs and thereby recoup a balance of power modelled on the Cold War; this did, after all, deliver half a century with no major war. The reality is clearly not so simple, and CARA, which since 1991 has been a vehicle for IHEDN (Institute for Higher National Defence Studies) students to take a strategic approach to current affairs, has decided to analyse the situation, looking at possible consequences of these events and trying to identify any les-sons that might be learned from them. Particular emphasis has been placed on Europe’s options in selecting both a role and a position in this turbulent world.
Summer 2008: Lessons for Europe
This summer, international news was full of Georgia, China and financial crises, and this should have encouraged us to recognise the instability and fragility of the current strategic mix. What should be the basis and framework for a new global order (or disorder)? What role is there for previously dominant Western players?
These events have encouraged the ‘return’ of Russia and the emergence of new balances of power, especially in the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. They mark the failure of President George W. Bush in his economic policy (significant growth in the deregulation initiated by Ronald Reagan) as well as his neoconservative foreign policy legitimising the use of force in defence of the ‘American exception’. This momentous conjunction of military commitments and an economic and financial crisis has weakened the United States and called into question the dominant role that it has been playing since the collapse of the USSR.
The entire Western world, and especially Europe and the Atlantic Alliance, is deeply involved in all this. Clearly we must question the long-term future of our organisations and consider the emergence of new partnerships and alliances.(1) If, for example, we consider that a truly ‘sustainable development’ would enable ‘economic globalisation to be balanced by a globalisation of citizens’ rights’ (social justice, protection of the environment), and that this was a viable proposition,(2) should we not be promoting education, economic and social planning, and control over the demography of less developed countries? Could one in fact achieve this end without drastic improvements in the governance of the countries concerned?
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