NATO has been condemned to winning a victory in Afghanistan. From whatever point of view one might choose, all questions, considerations and strategies, be they of approach or withdrawal, come down to this simple, rather shocking declaration. How did we get into this position? What are the root causes of the conflict, what are the aspirations of the Afghan people today and what role has NATO played, and can it continue to play, in this operational commitment? To reply to all of these questions in a few pages would be to attempt the impossible, and the subject would risk being trivialised through being over-simplified. Nevertheless, this conflict represents both a highly out-of-the-ordinary commitment and a major strategic challenge; drawing lessons from it or simply highlighting the elements that make it so unusual would be interesting in order to gain an idea of what hope there is for the future. The more so in order to determine the role that NATO has played or could play in the future, especially on the eve of its 60^th anniversary.

A Rugged Country with a Proud and Warlike People

Afghan territory is unquestionably rugged. The country covers a vast area that is divided by the Himalayan chain of the Hindu Kush. It has an eastern frontier with China at an altitude of over 6,000 m, and the communication routes do nothing to help trade. Moreover, the climate swings from a rigorous winter, in which everything comes to a halt, to the heat of a summer in which everything is burned to a frazzle, leaving arid soil and few sources of energy. It is a wonderful country but one in which it is very difficult to live. Agriculture follows the cycles of drought, which generally last seven years according to local folklore, and there is little or no industrial production. In short, an economy in decline, kept alive by injections from the international community.

For all that, the day-to-day reality of Afghanistan lies in its population, a people composed of many ethnic groups who feel part of their land, and are proud of their origins and inheritance, their culture of medieval tradition and their warlike past. Four main ethnic groups coexist in Afghanistan: the Pashtuns inhabit the south of the country, in what is referred to as Pashtunistan, a region split by the Duran line that is the arbitrary border with Pakistan. The Tajiks are mainly along the border with Tajikistan, their neighbouring Uzbeks border Uzbekistan, and finally the Hazaras, who are considered social pariahs and live mainly in the west of the country. Few of these have developed by the standards of Western tradition, and culture evolves slowly in this landlocked country that is cut off from external contact and Western influence and yet is the hub of this part of Asia.